Context-responsive modelling to inform HPV vaccination strategies: from introduction, vaccine target expansion, to integration with screening

The IARC Public Health Decision Science Team presented a framework for context-responsive modelling across the full lifecycle of national HPV vaccination programs, from introduction through target expansion to integration with cervical screening. Using case studies from Bhutan, India, Sweden, and Rwanda, the team demonstrated how country-specific parameters — including disease burden, cost data, and coverage scenarios — can be incorporated into quantitative models to guide decisions on dose schedules, female catch-up age ranges, gender-neutral vaccination, and screening design. A newly launched interactive catch-up decision tool (METHIS) is currently available for Kenya and Nigeria, enabling planners to assess dose efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact for locally defined catch-up thresholds. Modelling from Bhutan showed that the first vaccine dose is always cost-effective while the second is not, a finding anticipated to be broadly applicable across LMICs.

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